Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2021-12-16 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 52.6%

VGK: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.01

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

NJD

M. Blackwood

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	M. Blackwood	30	25	5	83.3%	4.06	4	-0.94
VGK	R. Lehner	26	23	3	88.5%	3.86	4	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	9	1	0.59
1	VGK	16	2	1.59
2	NJD	20	1	1.90
2	VGK	17	1	0.84
3	NJD	12	2	1.36
3	VGK	13	1	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0