Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-02-10 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 46.6%

TOR: 53.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.35

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 57%

CGY

J. Markstrom

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	48	46	2	95.8%	2.86	1	0.86
TOR	J. Campbell	26	21	5	80.8%	2.13	0	-2.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	0.89
1	TOR	20	0	0.88
2	CGY	12	0	0.81
2	TOR	20	0	1.04
3	CGY	8	0	0.44
3	TOR	19	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0