Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions
2021-12-17 • Enterprise Center
St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Dallas Stars
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
STL: 56.0%
DAL: 44.0%
Expected Goals
STL: 3.08
DAL: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
STL
C. Lindgren
DAL
B. Holtby
| Stat | STL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | C. Lindgren | 27 | 26 | 1 | 96.3% | 2.68 | 2 | 1.68 |
| DAL | B. Holtby | 34 | 30 | 4 | 88.2% | 3.69 | 3 | -0.31 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs DAL: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | DAL 5 - 4 STL | DAL | DAL |
| 2026-01-27 | STL 3 - 4 DAL | DAL | STL |
| 2026-01-23 | DAL 3 - 2 STL | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-10-18 | STL 3 - 1 DAL | STL | STL |
| 2025-03-02 | DAL 6 - 3 STL | DAL | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STL | 12 | 0 | 0.62 |
| 1 | DAL | 9 | 0 | 0.38 |
| 2 | STL | 13 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 2 | DAL | 12 | 1 | 0.91 |
| 3 | STL | 16 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 3 | DAL | 18 | 1 | 1.39 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1
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