Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-12-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 57.9%

CHI: 42.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.83

CHI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CHI

K. Lankinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	20	3	87.0%	2.21	1	-0.79
CHI	K. Lankinen	39	35	4	89.7%	3.71	1	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs CHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	27	1	1.78
1	CHI	7	1	0.81
2	DAL	11	0	0.87
2	CHI	13	0	0.92
3	DAL	13	0	0.92
3	CHI	11	0	0.36
4	DAL	1	0	0.15
4	CHI	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.8 - 2.8