Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-12-19 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 60.8%

LAK: 39.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.00

LAK: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

V. Vanecek

LAK

G. Sparks

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	24	21	3	87.5%	1.88	1	-1.12
LAK	G. Sparks	35	33	2	94.3%	2.16	0	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • WSH at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-02	LAK 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	LAK
2025-11-17	WSH 2 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2025-03-13	LAK 3 - 0 WSH	LAK	LAK
2024-12-22	WSH 3 - 1 LAK	WSH	WSH
2024-01-07	WSH 4 - 3 LAK	WSH	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	0.77
1	LAK	10	0	0.55
2	WSH	13	0	0.74
2	LAK	11	0	0.52
3	WSH	15	0	0.65
3	LAK	15	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7