Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-02-20 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 60.0%

MTL: 40.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.60

MTL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MTL

A. Hammond

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	25	4	86.2%	3.80	2	-0.20
MTL	A. Hammond	35	32	3	91.4%	3.62	1	0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	NYI
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	MTL
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.78
1	MTL	13	0	0.77
2	NYI	15	0	1.08
2	MTL	8	0	0.27
3	NYI	18	0	0.85
3	MTL	9	0	0.72
4	NYI	1	0	0.10
4	MTL	3	0	0.18
5	NYI	3	1	0.80
5	MTL	2	2	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1