Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2022-02-19 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 47.0%
COL: 53.0%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.59
COL: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
D. Tokarski
COL
D. Kuemper
| Stat | BUF | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | D. Tokarski | 36 | 31 | 5 | 86.1% | 4.98 | 3 | -0.02 |
| COL | D. Kuemper | 32 | 29 | 3 | 90.6% | 2.82 | 0 | -0.18 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | COL 6 - 3 BUF | COL | COL |
| 2025-10-13 | BUF 1 - 3 COL | COL | BUF |
| 2025-01-02 | COL 6 - 5 BUF | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-03 | BUF 4 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2023-12-13 | COL 5 - 1 BUF | COL | COL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 8 | 0 | 0.72 |
| 1 | COL | 16 | 1 | 1.56 |
| 2 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 0.88 |
| 2 | COL | 13 | 1 | 1.49 |
| 3 | BUF | 21 | 0 | 1.22 |
| 3 | COL | 14 | 1 | 1.93 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.6 - 3.0
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