Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-02-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

BOS: 64.5%

COL: 35.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.28

COL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	28	1	96.6%	2.02	0	1.02
COL	D. Kuemper	45	40	5	88.9%	4.74	5	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs COL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	24	2	2.07
1	COL	11	0	0.38
2	BOS	17	2	1.60
2	COL	14	0	0.82
3	BOS	12	1	1.07
3	COL	12	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0