Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-02-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 71.2%

OTT: 28.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.87

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

WSH

I. Samsonov

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	26	22	4	84.6%	2.52	2	-1.48
OTT	Anton Forsberg	34	33	1	97.1%	2.62	0	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.65
1	OTT	15	1	1.06
2	WSH	17	0	1.21
2	OTT	14	1	0.89
3	WSH	16	0	0.77
3	OTT	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1