Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2022-03-07 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 55.1%
EDM: 44.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.34
EDM: 3.03
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
J. Markstrom
EDM
M. Koskinen
| Stat | CGY | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | J. Markstrom | 28 | 27 | 1 | 96.4% | 1.73 | 0 | 0.73 |
| EDM | M. Koskinen | 29 | 26 | 3 | 89.7% | 2.83 | 0 | -0.17 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CGY 4 - 3 EDM | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-12-27 | CGY 3 - 2 EDM | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-12-23 | EDM 5 - 1 CGY | EDM | CGY |
| 2025-10-08 | EDM 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | EDM |
| 2025-03-29 | EDM 3 - 2 CGY | EDM | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CGY | 12 | 0 | 0.72 |
| 1 | EDM | 7 | 0 | 0.22 |
| 2 | CGY | 12 | 0 | 0.75 |
| 2 | EDM | 13 | 0 | 0.69 |
| 3 | CGY | 17 | 0 | 1.36 |
| 3 | EDM | 13 | 0 | 0.82 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
Get NHL forecasts in your inbox
Occasional emails with NHL forecasts, analysis, and model updates.