Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-02-16 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 67.2%

COL: 32.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.43

COL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

L. Brossoit

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	25	23	2	92.0%	2.65	1	0.65
COL	D. Kuemper	29	29	0	100.0%	2.90	1	2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs COL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	1	1.19
1	COL	12	1	1.05
2	VGK	11	0	0.66
2	COL	14	0	1.16
3	VGK	18	0	1.04
3	COL	11	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1