Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-12-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 60.1%

MTL: 39.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.81

MTL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

M. Lagace

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	M. Lagace	31	27	4	87.1%	2.97	0	-1.03
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	37	32	5	86.5%	4.52	1	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	1.13
1	MTL	11	0	0.65
2	TBL	23	1	1.88
2	MTL	12	0	1.22
3	TBL	12	0	1.20
3	MTL	14	0	1.11
4	TBL	2	0	0.30
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4