Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-02-15 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 57.7%

DAL: 42.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.09

DAL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

P. Francouz

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	P. Francouz	20	16	4	80.0%	2.63	2	-1.37
DAL	Jake Oettinger	47	46	1	97.9%	4.45	2	3.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • COL at home vs DAL: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	1	1.27
1	DAL	8	0	0.68
2	COL	18	1	1.69
2	DAL	12	1	0.87
3	COL	24	0	1.50
3	DAL	9	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9