Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2021-12-30 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 9 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 55.2%

TBL: 44.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.65

TBL: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TBL

M. Lagace

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	42	39	3	92.9%	3.06	0	0.06
TBL	M. Lagace	37	28	9	75.7%	3.59	1	-5.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • FLA at home vs TBL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	1.05
1	TBL	23	0	1.13
2	FLA	18	1	1.77
2	TBL	11	0	0.86
3	FLA	10	0	0.77
3	TBL	18	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 9 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8