Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-02-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

CGY: 61.8%

WPG: 38.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.96

WPG: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

CGY

J. Markstrom

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	23	22	1	95.7%	1.90	0	0.90
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	28	3	90.3%	3.54	2	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	22	0	1.45
1	WPG	9	0	0.48
2	CGY	18	0	0.82
2	WPG	10	0	0.70
3	CGY	10	2	1.26
3	WPG	10	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 4.0 - 3.0