Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-01-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TOR: 72.7%

OTT: 27.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.60

OTT: 2.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

J. Campbell

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	23	23	0	100.0%	1.49	0	1.49
OTT	M. Murray	40	34	6	85.0%	5.01	2	-0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs OTT: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	0	1.31
1	OTT	5	0	0.35
2	TOR	25	1	2.31
2	OTT	11	0	0.62
3	TOR	19	1	1.39
3	OTT	12	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 4.6 - 2.2