Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-02-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 39.4%

WSH: 60.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.51

WSH: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Cayden Primeau	23	18	5	78.3%	2.59	2	-2.41
WSH	I. Samsonov	44	42	2	95.5%	2.78	0	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs WSH: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.46
1	WSH	12	1	0.92
2	MTL	19	0	1.32
2	WSH	9	0	0.51
3	MTL	22	0	0.99
3	WSH	5	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.5 - 3.4