Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

TOR: 64.2%

EDM: 35.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.46

EDM: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

J. Campbell

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	30	28	2	93.3%	2.09	0	0.09
EDM	M. Smith	33	29	4	87.9%	3.61	2	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.29
1	EDM	13	0	0.68
2	TOR	12	0	0.71
2	EDM	12	0	0.57
3	TOR	18	1	1.61
3	EDM	20	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8