San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-01-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

BUF: 45.8%

SJS: 54.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.00

SJS: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

SJS

A. Hill

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	21	18	3	85.7%	1.68	0	-1.32
SJS	A. Hill	39	37	2	94.9%	2.37	0	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BUF	12	0.68
1	SJS	16	0.96
2	BUF	13	0.63
2	SJS	7	0.45
3	BUF	24	1.06
3	SJS	7	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3