Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-02-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (70% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 29.5%

TOR: 70.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.42

TOR: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 55%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	37	35	2	94.6%	2.92	0	0.92
TOR	P. Mrazek	24	19	5	79.2%	2.27	3	-2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • MTL at home vs TOR: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	3	1.01
1	TOR	15	0	1.35
2	MTL	13	0	1.05
2	TOR	18	0	1.04
3	MTL	6	0	0.21
3	TOR	16	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.4 - 3.5