Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-01-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 52.5%

PIT: 47.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.48

PIT: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

PHI

C. Hart

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	32	26	6	81.2%	3.84	3	-2.16
PIT	Tristan Jarry	20	18	2	90.0%	2.29	2	0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.71
1	PIT	21	1	1.88
2	PHI	10	0	0.77
2	PIT	12	0	0.78
3	PHI	10	2	0.80
3	PIT	11	2	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.5