Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-01-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 5 Florida Panthers (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 45.7%

FLA: 54.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.14

FLA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

B. Holtby

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	B. Holtby	43	38	5	88.4%	3.92	0	-1.08
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	38	31	7	81.6%	4.19	2	-2.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DAL at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	DAL 0 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-11-01	FLA 4 - 3 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-02	FLA 4 - 2 DAL	FLA	FLA
2024-11-01	DAL 4 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-03-12	DAL 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.68
1	FLA	21	0	1.56
2	DAL	24	0	1.13
2	FLA	17	0	0.82
3	DAL	5	0	0.39
3	FLA	18	0	1.06
4	DAL	5	0	0.34
4	FLA	2	0	0.35
5	DAL	2	2	1.65
5	FLA	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1