Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-01-07 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 45.9%

WSH: 54.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.64

WSH: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

STL

V. Husso

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	V. Husso	27	26	1	96.3%	2.19	0	1.19
WSH	I. Samsonov	24	19	5	79.2%	3.40	2	-1.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	0.78
1	WSH	16	0	1.16
2	STL	9	0	0.66
2	WSH	11	0	0.45
3	STL	13	2	1.97
3	WSH	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4