Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TBL: 48.7%

BOS: 51.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.12

BOS: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	25	5	83.3%	3.10	1	-1.90
BOS	L. Ullmark	29	27	2	93.1%	2.94	1	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	19	0	0.98
1	BOS	11	0	0.58
2	TBL	12	1	1.12
2	BOS	15	0	0.89
3	TBL	12	0	0.84
3	BOS	15	1	1.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2