New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-02-11 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 49.3%

NYI: 50.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.95

NYI: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

M. Smith

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	38	37	1	97.4%	3.57	1	2.57
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	3.00	1	0.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	0	0.73
1	NYI	25	1	1.66
2	EDM	16	1	1.14
2	NYI	13	0	1.05
3	EDM	15	0	1.13
3	NYI	13	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3