Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-03-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins (OT)

Win Probability

MTL: 39.9%

BOS: 60.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.59

BOS: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

J. Allen

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	46	43	3	93.5%	3.52	3	0.52
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	26	2	92.9%	2.35	2	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.69
1	BOS	19	2	1.11
2	MTL	18	1	1.05
2	BOS	16	0	0.84
3	MTL	8	1	0.62
3	BOS	23	1	1.44
4	MTL	0	0	0.00
4	BOS	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.5