Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-01-13 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 63.7%

OTT: 36.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.75

OTT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

CGY

J. Markstrom

OTT

M. Murray

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	34	30	4	88.2%	3.65	3	-0.35
OTT	M. Murray	28	27	1	96.4%	3.35	0	2.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.37
1	OTT	17	2	1.38
2	CGY	13	0	0.77
2	OTT	16	1	1.25
3	CGY	18	0	1.21
3	OTT	14	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1