Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-01-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

TBL: 69.0%

DAL: 31.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.51

DAL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DAL

A. Khudobin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	19	1	95.0%	2.08	0	1.08
DAL	A. Khudobin	29	26	3	89.7%	3.88	2	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • TBL at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	0	1.21
1	DAL	8	0	0.60
2	TBL	14	0	0.91
2	DAL	3	0	0.23
3	TBL	14	2	1.75
3	DAL	16	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9