Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-16 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 53.2%

VAN: 46.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.06

VAN: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

I. Samsonov

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	32	28	4	87.5%	3.87	2	-0.13
VAN	Thatcher Demko	33	31	2	93.9%	3.30	1	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 30% • WSH at home vs VAN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	WSH
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	VAN
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	1	1.23
1	VAN	22	0	1.40
2	WSH	13	0	1.23
2	VAN	16	1	1.38
3	WSH	14	0	0.84
3	VAN	9	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3