Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-01-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.8%

DET: 51.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.02

DET: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

A. Dell

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	A. Dell	35	32	3	91.4%	3.20	2	0.20
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	28	26	2	92.9%	2.78	0	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • BUF at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.91
1	DET	7	0	0.39
2	BUF	9	0	0.46
2	DET	12	0	0.66
3	BUF	15	0	1.41
3	DET	22	1	1.74
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	DET	4	1	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2