Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-01-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 63.4%

BUF: 36.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.17

BUF: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

M. Houser

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	29	3	90.6%	2.42	1	-0.58
BUF	M. Houser	44	43	1	97.7%	2.97	2	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs BUF: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	1	1.08
1	BUF	12	0	0.42
2	OTT	23	1	1.48
2	BUF	19	0	0.77
3	OTT	16	0	0.41
3	BUF	13	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9