Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-01-19 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (67% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 33.2%

TOR: 66.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.82

TOR: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	38	35	3	92.1%	3.46	0	0.46
TOR	J. Campbell	27	21	6	77.8%	2.48	1	-3.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYR at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	7	0	0.40
1	TOR	15	0	1.08
2	NYR	15	0	1.09
2	TOR	14	0	0.98
3	NYR	13	1	0.99
3	TOR	19	0	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7