Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-01-20 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

BOS: 57.1%

WSH: 42.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.28

WSH: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

BOS

L. Ullmark

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	17	14	3	82.4%	1.61	1	-1.39
WSH	V. Vanecek	34	30	4	88.2%	3.17	1	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	0	0.74
1	WSH	7	1	0.57
2	BOS	11	1	0.97
2	WSH	9	0	0.48
3	BOS	16	0	1.47
3	WSH	9	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2