New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 68.3%

NYI: 31.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.93

NYI: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

J. Campbell

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	29	27	2	93.1%	2.07	0	0.07
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	37	33	4	89.2%	4.30	3	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs NYI: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.57
1	NYI	10	0	0.40
2	TOR	16	0	1.21
2	NYI	13	0	0.45
3	TOR	22	3	2.53
3	NYI	17	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7