Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-01-23 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 63.2%

OTT: 36.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.32

OTT: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	31	2	93.9%	2.91	1	0.91
OTT	Anton Forsberg	36	35	1	97.2%	3.34	0	2.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs OTT: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	CBJ 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-29	OTT 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	OTT
2025-12-11	CBJ 3 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-08	CBJ 5 - 2 OTT	CBJ	OTT
2025-04-06	OTT 4 - 0 CBJ	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	20	0	1.48
1	OTT	14	1	1.26
2	CBJ	14	0	0.76
2	OTT	16	0	1.10
3	CBJ	14	0	1.10
3	OTT	10	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0