Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-01-24 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 0 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

WSH: 45.8%

VGK: 54.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.71

VGK: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

V. Vanecek

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	29	28	1	96.6%	2.44	0	1.44
VGK	R. Lehner	34	34	0	100.0%	3.05	0	3.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	WSH	7	0.45
1	VGK	14	0.58
2	WSH	20	1.27
2	VGK	19	1.06
3	WSH	18	1.33
3	VGK	10	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 0 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3