Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-01-25 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

NYI: 60.8%

PHI: 39.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.78

PHI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	17	14	3	82.4%	1.50	0	-1.50
PHI	M. Jones	33	29	4	87.9%	4.44	1	0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs PHI: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.93
1	PHI	11	0	0.53
2	NYI	23	0	1.96
2	PHI	8	0	0.50
3	NYI	15	1	1.55
3	PHI	7	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0