Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-01-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 45.3%

BOS: 54.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.01

BOS: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

COL

D. Kuemper

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	32	29	3	90.6%	2.31	0	-0.69
BOS	L. Ullmark	41	37	4	90.2%	3.46	2	-0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	8	0	0.25
1	BOS	16	0	0.75
2	COL	19	0	0.94
2	BOS	20	0	0.98
3	COL	21	1	1.64
3	BOS	9	0	0.57
4	COL	6	1	0.64
4	BOS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4