Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-01-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Seattle Kraken (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.3%

SEA: 40.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.28

SEA: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	27	2	93.1%	2.42	1	0.42
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	24	23	1	95.8%	2.28	0	1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs SEA: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	SEA 3 - 6 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-22	PIT 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	PIT
2025-01-25	SEA 4 - 1 PIT	SEA	SEA
2025-01-14	PIT 2 - 4 SEA	SEA	PIT
2024-02-29	SEA 2 - 0 PIT	SEA	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.88
1	SEA	11	0	0.49
2	PIT	12	0	0.40
2	SEA	8	0	0.34
3	PIT	8	0	0.69
3	SEA	21	0	1.23
4	PIT	2	0	0.30
4	SEA	2	1	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8