Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-01-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

MTL: 48.3%

EDM: 51.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.90

EDM: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 58%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	24	17	7	70.8%	2.25	0	-4.75
EDM	Stuart Skinner	23	21	2	91.3%	2.15	0	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs EDM: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	MTL
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	9	0.51
1	EDM	14	1.00
2	MTL	20	1.36
2	EDM	7	0.34
3	MTL	3	0.28
3	EDM	14	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2