Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-01-29 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DET: 29.9%

TOR: 70.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.35

TOR: 3.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	37	30	7	81.1%	4.52	2	-2.48
TOR	P. Mrazek	35	31	4	88.6%	3.64	1	-0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • DET at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	1	1.70
1	TOR	17	0	0.99
2	DET	15	0	1.18
2	TOR	19	0	1.11
3	DET	11	0	0.76
3	TOR	14	2	2.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.4 - 3.9