Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-01-31 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 44.7%

EDM: 55.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.92

EDM: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

M. Murray

EDM

M. Koskinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	39	37	2	94.9%	3.84	1	1.84
EDM	M. Koskinen	31	28	3	90.3%	2.75	0	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.86
1	EDM	13	0	1.14
2	OTT	19	0	1.13
2	EDM	16	0	0.99
3	OTT	10	0	0.33
3	EDM	15	1	1.27
4	OTT	4	0	0.44
4	EDM	4	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5