Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NJD: 49.0%

TOR: 51.0%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.44

TOR: 4.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

NJD

J. Gillies

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	J. Gillies	36	29	7	80.6%	3.83	3	-3.17
TOR	J. Campbell	32	31	1	96.9%	3.25	2	2.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	10	2	0.95
1	TOR	23	1	2.33
2	NJD	12	0	1.01
2	TOR	14	2	1.10
3	NJD	19	0	1.29
3	TOR	9	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.4 - 4.1