Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-02-01 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 41.7%

CGY: 58.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.92

CGY: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	40	36	4	90.0%	2.95	2	-1.05
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	25	3	89.3%	3.01	3	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	1	0.89
1	CGY	18	1	1.02
2	DAL	19	2	1.63
2	CGY	16	0	0.73
3	DAL	8	0	0.50
3	CGY	23	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2