Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2022-02-12 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 51.1%
PHI: 48.9%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.45
PHI: 3.47
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
T. Greiss
PHI
C. Hart
| Stat | DET | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | T. Greiss | 34 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | 3.90 | 2 | 1.90 |
| PHI | C. Hart | 24 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% | 3.44 | 1 | -0.56 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs PHI: 6-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | DET 6 - 3 PHI | DET | PHI |
| 2026-04-02 | PHI 2 - 4 DET | DET | PHI |
| 2026-03-28 | DET 3 - 5 PHI | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-01-21 | PHI 2 - 1 DET | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-12-18 | DET 6 - 4 PHI | DET | PHI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 11 | 0 | 0.88 |
| 1 | PHI | 18 | 0 | 0.97 |
| 2 | DET | 14 | 0 | 1.19 |
| 2 | PHI | 21 | 0 | 1.30 |
| 3 | DET | 7 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 3 | PHI | 15 | 2 | 1.62 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.5
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