Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-02-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 51.2%

WPG: 48.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.52

WPG: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	20	2	90.9%	2.64	2	0.64
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	39	36	3	92.3%	4.14	2	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs WPG: 10-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	22	1	1.60
1	WPG	13	1	1.54
2	DAL	15	1	1.25
2	WPG	9	1	0.75
3	DAL	18	0	1.19
3	WPG	5	0	0.26
4	DAL	1	0	0.10
4	WPG	1	0	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0