Vegas Golden Knights at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-02-25 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 45.9%

VGK: 54.1%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.98

VGK: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

ARI

S. Wedgewood

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	S. Wedgewood	44	43	1	97.7%	4.12	0	3.12
VGK	L. Brossoit	32	29	3	90.6%	3.51	3	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • ARI at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-05	ARI 7 - 4 VGK	ARI	VGK
2024-02-08	ARI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-25	VGK 0 - 2 ARI	ARI	VGK
2023-01-22	ARI 4 - 1 VGK	ARI	ARI
2022-12-21	VGK 5 - 2 ARI	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	12	1	0.85
1	VGK	23	0	1.28
2	ARI	18	0	0.87
2	VGK	17	0	1.10
3	ARI	11	2	1.79
3	VGK	25	0	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7