Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2022-04-26 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 74.0%
DET: 26.0%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.59
DET: 1.64
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
J. Campbell
DET
A. Nedeljkovic
| Stat | TOR | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | J. Campbell | 20 | 20 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.48 | 0 | 1.48 |
| DET | A. Nedeljkovic | 36 | 33 | 3 | 91.7% | 3.66 | 0 | 0.66 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs DET: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOR | 22 | 0 | 1.23 |
| 1 | DET | 8 | 0 | 0.33 |
| 2 | TOR | 15 | 0 | 0.97 |
| 2 | DET | 10 | 0 | 0.60 |
| 3 | TOR | 18 | 0 | 1.46 |
| 3 | DET | 9 | 0 | 0.55 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 74.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.6 - 1.6
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