Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-02-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 51.6%

MTL: 48.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.92

MTL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

OTT

M. Murray

MTL

A. Hammond

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	32	30	2	93.8%	3.61	3	1.61
MTL	A. Hammond	27	26	1	96.3%	3.01	1	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • OTT at home vs MTL: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	1.14
1	MTL	14	1	1.09
2	OTT	14	1	0.94
2	MTL	14	1	1.28
3	OTT	11	0	0.93
3	MTL	13	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1