Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-26 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 44.0%

WSH: 56.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.04

WSH: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

PHI

C. Hart

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	28	27	1	96.4%	2.33	1	1.33
WSH	I. Samsonov	22	20	2	90.9%	2.23	1	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PHI at home vs WSH: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	0	0.67
1	WSH	13	0	0.53
2	PHI	10	0	0.64
2	WSH	16	1	1.31
3	PHI	8	1	0.93
3	WSH	17	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5